Calculator

No-lay Promos

For promos where you don't cover with a lay — cash refunds, conditional freebets or bonuses that only trigger if you win. Calculate the real expected value, factoring in the implied probability and whether the promo justifies not covering.

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Resultados

Required capital

100,00 €

EV

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Yield

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Effective Odds

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Profit

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Loss

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When not to cover?

When the promo offers a refund or bonus that only triggers if you lose (or win), covering with a lay cancels the condition. In those cases you must assess whether the expected value of not covering beats the cover loss.

What is expected value?

Expected value weights the possible scenarios by their probability. If the refund is large enough and the odds low enough, not covering can be mathematically better than covering.

Conditional freebets

Some promos hand out a freebet only if your bet loses. The calculator accounts for the freebet having a conversion value lower than its face amount, and reflects it in the final EV.

Full version

The promos already classified. You just decide.

With an account, the catalogue promos already have it worked out whether to cover or not. Filter by expected value and execute straight from the step-by-step guide.

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